Application of an Intelligent Fuzzy Regression Algorithm in Road Freight Transportation Modeling

Road freight transportation between provinces of a country has an important effect on the traffic flow of intercity transportation networks. Therefore, an accurate estimation of the road freight transportation for provinces of a country is so crucial to improve the rural traffic operation in a large scale management. Accordingly, the focused case study database in this research is the information related to Iran’s provinces in the year 2008. Correlation between road freight transportation with variables such as transport cost and distance, population, average household income and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of each province is calculated. Results clarify that the population is the most effective factor in the prediction of provinces’ transported freight. Linear Regression Model (LRM) is calibrated based on the population variable, and afterwards Fuzzy Regression Algorithm (FRA) is generated on the basis of the LRM. The proposed FRA is an intelligent modified algorithm with an accurate prediction and fitting ability. This methodology can be significantly useful in macro-level planning problems where decreasing prediction error values is one of the most important concerns for decision makers. In addition, Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) is developed to evaluate the prediction capability of the models and to be compared with FRA. According to the final results, the modified FRA estimates road freight transportation values more accurately than the BPNN and LRM. Finally, in order to predict the road freight transportation values, the reliability of the calibrated models is analyzed using the information of the year 2009. Results show higher reliability for the proposed modified FRA.</p

17-09 Assessing the Impact of Air Pollution on Public Health Along Transit Routes

Transportation sources account for a large proportion of the pollutants found in most urban areas. Also, transportation activity and intensity appear likely to contribute to the risk of respiratory disease occurrence. This research investigates the impacts of transportation, urban design and socioeconomic characteristics on the risk of air pollution-related respiratory diseases in two of the biggest MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) in the US, Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) and Los Angeles at the block group (BG) level, by considering the US Environmental Protection Agency’s respiratory hazard quotient (RHQ) as the dependent variable. The researchers identify thirty candidate indicators of disease risk from previous studies and use them as independent variables in the model. The study applies a three-step modeling including Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to reach the final model. The results of this study demonstrate strong spatial correlations in the variability in both MSAs which help explain the impact of the indicators such as socioeconomic characteristics, transit access to jobs, and automobile access on the risk of respiratory diseases. The populations living in areas with higher transit access to jobs in urbanized areas and greater automobile access in more rural areas appear more prone to respiratory diseases after controlling for demographic characteristics